Areas with the highest and lowest weekly infection rates
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England’s stay-cation hotspots of Devon, Cornwall and Dorset in the South West will be hit the hardest by a second wave of coronavirus, study claims

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  • The region has had the lowest cases so far, but this could change, a study claims
  • Study found the South West could face 350 new cases per day in July
  • Travel to the region increases at this time of year when people go on holiday
  • Other experts highlight the South West will likely have low lower immunity

Britain’s stay-cation hotspots of Devon, Cornwall and Dorset will be hit the hardest by a second wave of coronavirus, a study has claimed.

South West England — home to around 5.6million people — fared relatively well during the first bout of Covid-19, which killed 55,000 Brits.

The virus is still in circulation, sparking fears among locals that tourists will bring the infection with them.

But now scientists fear the rural region, famed for its beautiful coastline, is likely to be the first to endure the inevitable effects of the lockdown being eased.

A second wave of the coronavirus could hit south west England the hardest
A second wave of the coronavirus could hit south west England the hardest, a study claims. The orange dots on the left are new daily cases from March to end of May. Beyond the vertical blue dashed line marks are the predicted new cases over the summer. The researchers model suggests the South West could face 350 new cases per day in July in the worst case scenario (the lighter shade of orange), and between 50 and 150 cases per day in a better scenario (the dark shade of orange)

Cambridge University researchers say the South West could face 350 new cases a day later this month – around 40 per cent more than during the height of the crisis in April.

Government advisers believe only three per cent of the region’s population have caught the virus since the outbreak began, meaning it is nowhere near herd immunity, which is thought to require 60 per cent of a population to catch the virus.

Areas with the highest and lowest weekly infection rates
This map shows how there has been a ‘North/South’ divide in the infection rates in England (data between June 15 and June 21)

And experts say the region has a high proportion of elderly people, who face a much greater risk of dying or becoming seriously ill with the virus.

On top of that, people from across the country are flocking to the beaches for day trips and many more will plan their upcoming summer holidays there.

The virus is still in circulation, sparking fears among locals that tourists will bring the infection with them.

Continued…Read full original article…

Source: Daily Mail

Original publication 7 July, 2020

Posted on NatCorn 13th July 2020

Reference to an article does not infer endorsement of any views expressed.

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